When sheriff leaves town

During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union, in opposition, served as the world’s de facto police. Since then the U.S. has largely carried on that task alone. But in recent years, as the Russia-Ukraine and Hamas-Israel conflicts illustrate, the pessimistic view has gained ground that the fundamental framework of the international order is collapsing. The growing fear is that the world is becoming more lawless in the absence of U.S. assertiveness.

The U.S.’s assumed role as the world’s policeman is no longer guaranteed. The American people now seem to be saying to their leaders, “Look, our country shouldn’t pay so much attention to other countries’ issues, always sending our troops abroad. We should focus on more important economic problems and keep our borders sealed to protect the country from illegal immigrants!”

Scholars who take a realist point of view perceive that the essence of international politics is the struggle for power. The U.S.-China rivalry, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the Hamas-Israel conflict are all power struggles from this perspective. And power hates a vacuum. When a superpower’s perceived authority weakens on the international stage, fierce competitors will quickly fill the gap. After the Soviet Union collapsed, West Germany astutely identified and made use of the opportunity to achieve peaceful unification with East Germany through pragmatic diplomacy. More often, however, such vacuums end up in tragedy. As the Cold War ended and the Soviet Union’s influence in and support for the Eastern Bloc vanished, long dormant ethnic tensions in Yugoslavia resurfaced. Disastrous civil wars broke out in Croatia, Bosnia, and Serbia as the former multi-ethnic state disintegrated.

The second Gulf War in 2003, controversial in its initiation and poorly executed in its aftermath, is viewed by many as the turning point at which the U.S. started to decline in its role as world hegemon. The U.S. has since frequently revealed a lack of determination, failing to act even when firm resolve would seem essential. In 2012, President Barack Obama warned that any use of chemical weapons by the Syrian government, led by Bashar al-Assad, against domestic rebels would be a “red line,” strongly implying that the response would include a U.S. military strike. However, the U.S. did not act even after it had determined that Syria had used chemical weapons. Russia clearly detected this power vacuum, and shortly thereafter intervened by supporting the Assad regime and increasing its influence in the Middle East.

The Obama administration virtually neglected North Korea, describing its policy with a bizarre expression, “strategic patience,” or what might be better referred to as “strategic ignorance.” As a result, North Korea was able to buy time to advance its nuclear capabilities. Obama’s administration did impose economic sanctions on North Korea, but these were largely ineffective. Although the Biden administration has emphasized its differentiation from predecessors, its North Korea policy has not deviated from the basic framework of “strategic patience.” In the meantime, North Korea has already completed its nuclear capability in a practical sense.

If the U.S. had provided Ukraine with sufficiently powerful weapons, such as F-16 fighter jets, when Russia first invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the situation in that war might be much different by now. However,

the U.S. was reluctant to provide such advanced support. And as time dragged on, there are now even fears that the U.S. might eventually withdraw its assistance to Ukraine. Donald Trump’s lead in the polls for the next presidential election only increases these concerns.

This does not mean that the Biden administration has neglected efforts to demonstrate America’s global leadership. Biden has focused on the fact that the U.S.’s alliances are its biggest strength. The U.S. has tried to maintain its influence in international politics by forming common fronts with its allies. It has been strengthening these alliances through various networks, such as the Quad, AUKUS, South KoreaU.S.-Japan trilateral cooperation, and NATO-Indo-Pacific linkages. However, the Biden administration faced an unexpected ambush in the latest Hamas-Israel conflict, which was followed by a flat-footed response. The U.S. now appears to be turning a blind eye to the possibility that Russia and Iran might have played a hand in the attack on Israel.

From its beginnings the U.S. adopted an isolationist stance beyond its immediate region, and it was only after World War II that it emerged, perhaps reluctantly, as a superpower in international politics. Is the U.S. now tiring of its role as a hegemonic power that can manage the international order? If so, an analogy presents itself: the sheriff is giving up and leaving town. What happens next? Gangsters and other outlaws will step in to fill the void.

If the U.S. truly becomes indecisive and withdrawn, the world could go down a path of calamitous disorder. North Korea’s regime under Kim Jong-un is no doubt watching. Kim might conclude that, wielding his own nuclear threat while the U.S. remains distracted, he can get away with a surprise invasion of South Korea. China will also be closely monitoring the U.S.’s passive attitude. Were China to invade Taiwan in a surprise attack, the U.S. might be too distracted by domestic politics to make a countermove in time to prevent a takeover.

If this is the reality we now face, the question for South Korea is how well it understands this rapidly changing and disorderly world, whether it can judge it accurately, and how it can prepare for it. Is it an exaggeration to say that South Korea is now at a crossroads in terms of its very survival as a country? Modern Korean history has shown that the peninsula’s preservation depends on how it responds to fundamental changes in the global security landscape. Such a change might now be occurring if the sheriff really leaves town.

... the question for South Korea is

how well it understands this

rapidly changing and disorderly world ...