Fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty

Colombia’s economy is dependent on fossil fuels, which account for about half of its exports. But at the U.N. climate summit this weekend, Gustavo Petro, the country’s president, committed to stop the expansion of coal, oil and gas exploitation and reorient his nation away from such “poisons.” Colombia is the first big economy to endorse a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty. This is a sensible, globally significant step — which raises the question of why other carbon-exporting OECD members, such as Britain, shouldn’t follow suit.

What is crazy is that governments plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 that is consistent with a “safe” global temperature rise of 1.5C. The paradox the treaty seeks to address is that the Paris agreement does not mention the fossil fuels responsible for global heating. But a handful of nations could show how phasing out fossil fuels can lead to sustainable green development and rebut the absurd denialism of Sultan Al Jaber, the oil boss and Cop28 president. There are precedents: the 1997 mine ban treaty began with few backers, but was later ratified by 164 countries.

Humanity is at risk if there is no transition away from an extractive growth model to a greener one. Developing nations, such as Colombia, often run deficits in energy and food while exporting low-value goods relative to their imports. Africa’s

largest crude oil exporter, Nigeria, imports nearly all its fuel. Seven in 10 economies import more food than they export. Consequently, developing nations suffer a structural trade deficit that leads to a weakening currency and the need to borrow dollars. Poor nations under such a regime transfer about $2tn a year to rich ones, studies suggest.

Developing nations want to replace the current inequitable model of globalization with a fairer one. This has been done before. After 1945, West Germany was to be a “pastoral state” — dependent on others for energy, food and technology. But two years later, to keep the country from Moscow’s orbit, it was allowed to industrialize under the Marshall plan. Half the debt accumulated after two world wars was cancelled.