South Korea needs to make decision on sending lethal aid to Ukraine: CNAS CEO

Allies call for arms provision; Seoul remains cautious

This is the fourth in a series of interviews with senior politicians in Korea and executives at leading think tanks in Washington over the issue of the country’s provision of direct military support to Kyiv as the Ukraine war passes the one-year mark since Russia launched its attack, ending decades of relative stability in Europe. — ED.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has entered its second year with fighting specifically in the eastern parts of Ukraine raging. One real question is how Washington’s like-minded allies such as South Korea could further upscale their assistance for Kyiv to help better manage the ongoing crisis.

South Korea has not remained a mere bystander in the current Russia-Ukraine conflict as the country joined the U.S. and EU to ban the export of strategic items to Russia and extend export controls to Belarus. It also supported the removal of several Russian banks from the SWIFT international payments system from the beginning of the war.

Plus, Seoul has taken visible steps through various aid packages to Kyiv such as the provision of $100 million in humanitarian aid. In 2023, South Korea plans to provide an additional $130 million worth of aid. However, this increased financial assistance has excluded any direct offer on behalf of Seoul for military equipment.

As part of the country’s “coordinated response” to Western allies’ repeated calls for South Korea’s expanded contribution to the war effort in Ukraine, Seoul recently confirmed the government’s approval

to export howitzers to Poland. They will eventually be sent to the Ukrainian army.

But as the world’s eighth-largest arms exporter accounting for 2.8 percent of global exports, South Korea continues to be asked to send arms directly to Ukraine, according to estimates by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

Seoul’s official position is that the country’s law prevents selling arms to countries involved in armed conflict because it continues to play a balancing act between the U.S. and China, leaning toward the former but seeking not to alienate the latter to counter evolving North Korean threats.

In an interview with The Korea Times, the head of one of the top national security think tanks backing the U.S. President Joe Biden administration said South Korea is now positioned to directly send its lethal weapons as the stakes in Ukraine are high.

“The idea would be to make an exception for Ukraine given the

grave stakes in that war, its need for additional armaments, and South Korea’s role as one of the world’s top weapons producers,” Richard Fontaine, chief executive of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), said.

“The war in Ukraine is not merely a fight between Europeans. It’s about the rules in the world to come. The ripple effects of it will be felt across a much wider region,” the CEO said. “Though the broader ban on lethal aid remains in place, Poland has bought South Korean weapons and used them to replace arms it provided to Ukraine. The United States has reportedly purchased Korean ammunition and passed it on to Ukraine.”

CNAS is co-founded by Kurt Campbell, who is now managing Biden’s Indo-Pacific strategy at the White House National Security Council (NSC). The Washington-based think tank has a strong influence on the workings of the Biden administration’s foreign policy affairs. Victoria Nuland, undersecretary of state for political affairs, Ely Ratner, special assistant to the secretary of defense, Elizabeth Rosenberg, assistant secretary for terrorist financing and financial crimes, and David Cohen, deputy director of the Central Intelligence Agency, are among high profile CNAS experts selected for senior positions of responsibility in the administration.

Fontaine, who previously worked at the state department and the White House NSC, added that control over who uses weapons remains critical.

“The proposal for any South Korean policy change isn’t to abandon any controls. Though Seoul would presumably wish to have end-user transparency whether arms are transferred directly or indirectly. However, as a general matter, when Ukraine is fighting for its very existence — and when that fight is so directly tied to future outcomes in Europe and elsewhere — everyone should look for creative solutions,” the CNAS chief said.

While the chief executive stressed it will be South Korea to make the final call as changing the policy will represent a “significant step,” he, however, said the stakes in Ukraine are high and not limited to affecting North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) parties. Various factors and considerations should be reviewed from South Korea’s standpoint before sending lethal weapons to Ukraine because of the possibility of Russia transferring sensitive weapons technology to North Korea.

“At issue in Ukraine is the cardinal rule of international order — the prohibition against territorial conquest. If Russia succeeds in its attempt to forcibly seize and annex Ukrainian territory, then that will weaken the international norm against such behavior and set a troubling example for would-be aggressors elsewhere, including in Asia,” Fontaine said, adding this is the reason that South Korea and other countries in the Indo-Pacific — Japan, Australia, Singapore and New Zealand — have been active in sanctioning Russia and assisting Ukraine.

US can encourage

but not dictate

Fontaine assessed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as having been remarkable in terms of his leadership since the very beginning of this war.

“Imagine, for instance, if Zelenskyy in Ukraine had, like Ashraf Ghani did in Afghanistan, left the country as enemy forces were closing in. We would, I believe, see Ukraine in a much different situation today. His ability to rally Ukrainians to defend themselves against naked aggression is inspiring. Zelenskyy’s role in rallying the world to support Ukraine is similarly remarkable,” the chief executive stressed.

But Zelenskyy’s chief challenge is now sustaining that leadership for as long as it takes to prevent a Russian success. Fontaine said South Korea’s provision of humanitarian-centric aid and financial assistance to Ukraine are all meaningful and welcome steps in helping Ukraine defend itself against Russia’s brutal aggression.

“(But), the decision whether to change the policy on exporting weapons to Ukraine remains, of course, one for the South Korean government alone. Like with other issues — including the warming relations with Japan-United States-Republic of Korea coordination on North Korea — America can encourage but not dictate. It’s a matter to be discussed between allies, but ultimately Seoul itself will make the call,” the CNAS chief answered.

Last October, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned South Korea that sending ammunition to Ukraine would ruin Seoul-Moscow relations. As Russia has the capability to influence North Korea’s provocative behavior, South Korea is trying to pursue some degree of hedging by deliberately being reluctant to send lethal weapons directly to Ukraine. Despite Moscow’s earlier decision to place Seoul on its list of hostile countries, according to reports, South Korea still wants to maintain a working relations with Russia.